Investors need to compromise on their aspirations to revive the global economy. While economists warn of a long and difficult path ahead, investors need to reduce their desire for the coronavirus vaccine.
The question is, how easy would it be to vaccinate more than 7 billion people? Then how many people will agree to the vaccine. The future of global growth depends on the answers to those questions because a new wave of epidemics, fears of health and government barriers, are hampering daily life and commerce. Chris Chapman, portfolio manager at Monulif Investments, which manages more than $ 660 billion, says that when a successful disease prevention system comes in, it cannot be remedied immediately. In fact, it may take more than a year to return to pre-covid or trend growth, Chapman said.
The recovery period will be delayed, but the vaccine is expected to arrive sometime next year. For decades, the world economy has been relieved of its dependence on the central bank and the finance minister. On this basis, if you invest the right amount in an economy, it will eventually recover. The timing is different, as investors now see scientists’ vaccine and medical testing data as a sign of hope, just as they are focusing on Washington, Beijing or the European capital plan. The longer the struggle for an effective vaccine, the weaker the economic expansion.
It is believed that science can bring major success in the near future. If only a small percentage of the population, such as health workers and the most vulnerable, had a positive effect on it, it would have a major impact on the resumption of daily life. Pfizer Inc. said it would expect permission for its emergency use in the United States by the end of November for its vaccine with German partner BioNTech SE. The front-runner in the race is also likely to get urgent approval this year if his interim results improve next month.
Neil Ferguson, an epidemiologist at Imperial College London and a former UK government-19 adviser to the UK government, said adequate vaccines would be available to protect the most vulnerable groups by the end of spring. At the very least, there will be a balance between moving society and controlling the virus.
It is true that effective treatment will help restore the economy, but there is a mixed picture. Remdesivir has recently failed to treat the virus. Which has yielded disappointing results. Trump, meanwhile, called Gilead a “cure for coronary artery disease”. But it has been shown to be disappointing. But it is allowed to be used in medicine. Steroid dexamethasone is one of the most important treatments, and it is intended for people with severe symptoms.
Even if an effective vaccine is discovered, it is natural for the distribution to be disrupted. In the first phase, only a small population can get the vaccine. All of these factors will hinder global growth. Data from the United States and the Eurozone showed good growth in the third quarter, and the effects of the corona’s fears were unaffected. Although there has been talk of a V-shaped recovery in the past, winter is approaching in the northern hemisphere, and the virus is likely to spread easily. High-frequency data from Bloomberg Economy says industrial activity declined sharply in October. And it has a special impact on European countries.
The epidemic is under pressure. Among them are job losses, high debt, corporate bankruptcy, mismanagement, globalization, deteriorating mental health, and rising inequality. “Even in areas where there is a high incidence of coronary heart disease in the world, consumers are aware of this.” China’s retail sales are accelerating.
Flu like Coronaviruses is more likely to be regular. In other words, Graham Medley, a professor of infectious disease modeling at the London School of Hygiene, warned that it could be seen regularly as a flu. Graham Medley is also a member of the Tropical Medicine, and the UK Government’s Covid-19 Advisory Panel. “If the second and third infections are as contagious as the first infections, the initial vaccine will not be effective,” he added. However, by 2022, the corona virus will continue to be associated with the general life journey, Graham Medley said.