As per the recent study by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) the third wave of Coronavirus infections in India will be as large as the second wave.
According to the reports, the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) has estimated that it demonstrates plausible mechanisms by which a substantial third wave could occur, while also illustrating that it is unlikely for any such resurgence to be as large as the second wave and the study’s estimates are based on mathematical modelling.
As per the study, plausible mechanisms for a third wave could include a new variant of the virus causing Covid-19 that is more transmissible and at the same time capable of escaping prior immunity. The mechanism could also include imposing “lockdowns that are highly effective in limiting transmission” of the viral infection.
The study stresses that a rapid scale-up of vaccination efforts could play an important role in mitigating these and future waves of the disease.
It highlights three key considerations in multi-wave dynamics:
1) Individual behaviour and societal factors: crowding, use of masks and physical distancing during social interactions are all key factors shaping transmission rate and therefore, population-level spread.
The reduction in transmission could equally be applied to other non-pharmaceutical measures such as mask use and physical distancing; their relaxations could likewise contribute to further waves.
2) Health systems: Firstly, the effectiveness of any lockdown or other non-pharmaceutical intervention will depend critically on the health system in any given setting. For example, by drawing upon the example of Maharashtra, the Northeastern states instated early lockdown in response to the second wave even before the attainment of its peak.
Secondly, preparedness for any third wave (or indeed future pandemics) is likely to go hand-in-hand with the overall strengthening of the health system. For example, improved tertiary care capacity and enhanced coordination throughout India’s complex healthcare system. Such developments would have important long-term benefits, not limited only to pandemic preparedness.
3) Biological factors: In addition to viral transmission, immunity to SARS-CoV-2 raises several important considerations. First, concerning virus escape from vaccine-induced protection, evidence from the UK suggests that a single dose of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine shows reduced efficacy against symptomatic infection with B.1.617.2. However, two doses show high efficacy. As long as vaccines are similarly effective against any future immune escape variant, ramping up of vaccination coverage could substantially reduce the third wave burden arising from any combined virus-related factors.
News Source – India Today
Pic Source – Google
