Interviewtimes 
In the recent presidential and vice presidential elections, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) voted for opposition candidates. However, the AAP has distanced itself from all opposition parties. Under these circumstances, with few parliamentary seats in Gujarat, if the AAP is recognized as the National Party, it will change its status within the opposition. Arvind Kejriwal will be irreplaceable as the leader of the opposition party. Kejriwal’s national ambitions are well known, but his AAP, a relatively new political party, is not recognized as a major player in the opposition coalition, which is largely controlled by parliament. By becoming a national party, the AAP wants to be the force without which the opposition bloc can never succeed.
However, a CBI investigation into Delhi’s Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia over alleged excise policy irregularities has revealed that opposition parties are still skeptical about Kejriwal and ambitions.
Arvind Kejriwal entered Indian politics differently than other traditional leaders. He has maintained that the majority of Indian political parties are corrupt. When the AAP was formed from India’s anti-corruption movement, Kejriwal and his allies lashed out at opposition leaders. However, over time, Kejriwal changed his attitude towards the opposition.
Likewise, the AAP joined other opposition parties ahead of his 2019 general election. Kejriwal even held meetings with the opposition in the presence of Rahul Gandhi. Despite much debate, the AAP failed to ally itself with Delhi’s parliament in this election. However, Kejriwal attended several conferences, including the Trinamool Congress Colonel and a large rally organized by West Bengal Prime Minister Mamata Banerjee.
The AAP’s first fight was against his Sheila Dikshit government in Delhi, so the balance between Kejriwal and Parliament was not good from day one. Over time, Kejriwal has developed a good relationship with TMC Chairman Mamata Banerjee. But the relationship backfired after she decided to fight in her Goa assembly election, where Kejriwal was hopeful to get a good number of seats. Kejriwal understands that his main targets are states where the battle between BJP, congress and where the big parties are not strong. Many other opposition parties, such as the TMC, also have such conditions in mind. For this reason, the AAP believes that affiliation with a national political party increases its bargaining power within the opposition alliance.
Last week, the CBI launched an investigation into the AAP leader and Delhi’s Deputy CM Manish Sisodia for alleged financial misconduct in Delhi’s excise policy. Congress was the first to demand Sisodia’s resignation. This shows that Congress will never be happy to let the AAP join the larger opposition coalition. Other opposition parties have also split. Mamata Banerjee has not released a public statement condemning the investigation. Similarly, DMK, TRS, NCP and JMM have remained silent. Some political parties such as RJD, PDP and Samajwadi party support Sisodia. These are examples of fragmented opposition. This also proves that Kejriwal will struggle to establish himself within the opposition alliance.
Kejriwal remained silent against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) for several years. The idea was that he would not take on the BJP until his power increased. Delhi, the capital of India, is not a full state and relies heavily on the central government. Therefore, after winning Punjab, he started playing against BJP. A major victory in Punjab has strengthened the AAP’s power not only in other state governments, but also in parliaments. The party now has 10 of his members in parliament. By comparison, BJP has 91, Congress has 31, and TMC has 13. This makes the AAP the opposition side of the House of Representatives, Congress and he is the third most important political party after the TMC. In Goa, AAP has two of his MLAs. If the party wins more seats in Gujarat and other states, it will not only become a national party but also increase the membership of Rajasabha, making it her second largest party after Parliament. The Trinamool Council, which has 13 MPs, is currently limited to West Bengal and its number of MPs is unlikely to increase in the near future. During the recent parliamentary monsoon sessions, the parliamentary-led opposition repeatedly turned to the AAP to seek support on several issues, including opposing the Narendra Modi government’s use of central institutions to involve rivals. Against the backdrop of these events, Kejriwal understands that the AAP is becoming a key opposition party and that without him the anti-BJP alliance will not be able to stand up to his current government before 2024. That message was sent loud and clear to the opposition coalition when he endorsed the election, even though he did not attend the meeting to select the opposition’s presidential and vice presidential candidates.
For Kejriwal, the road to replacing the BJP will not be easy. He recently launched a campaign called Make India No.1. Several of his AAP leaders have already said they want Kejriwal as the face of the 2024 prime minister. The party is poised to run for parliamentary elections in Gujarat and Himachal soon. It is also important to understand that Indian voters vote differently in national elections and parliamentary polls. The AAP’s free welfare model is all state-centric. In order to participate in the general election, Kejriwal not only needs bigger ideas in areas such as India’s economy, diplomacy and defense, but also needs to change its over-reliance on freebies. Whether he will go it alone or join the opposition with more bargaining power remains to be seen.
