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Economy arrived as V-shape Recovery After Massive Q-1 Slide

The economy is witnessing a V-shape recovery after massive 23.9% contraction of GDP in June quarter.
But as India is emerging from Covid-19 pandemic, it would be critical to reorient the policy matrix towards calibrated construction of economy and areas that may require special attention.

These include agrarian supply chain, food markets, infrastructure, ICT, startups, financial inclusion, skilling and health care.

GDP contraction was much sharper in India than in advanced economies. The US economy contracted by 9.1% in June quarter and the UK by 21.7%, France by 18.9%, Spain by 22.1%, Italy by 17.7%.

The whole euro witnessed a 15% slide, and Japan contracted by 9.9% in the April-June period.
Although lockdown exerted a heavy cost contraction, it helped save lives, and this is reflected in the fact that India’s fatality rate was just 1.78% as of August 31 compared with 3.04% in the US as per the report.

Since the easing of lockdown curbed out in June, several high-frequency indicators have shown improvement.
Consumption is picking up with passenger vehicles sale highest level at 1.83 in July again at 1.43 lakh in March. Some revival in rural demands seen as growing sales of small cars, two-wheelers, sports utility vehicles and fertilisers.

Increase in registration for tractors have risen from 52,362 in March to 66061 in August is a further indicator of strengthening rural demands.
The railway freight traffic touched 95.2 million tonnes in July closing to its 99.7MT.

Since may agriculture has been persistently growing the brightest spot in the revival of growth. Industrial production is showing signs of positivity with a YoY increase in eight crore industrial output showing smaller contraction in July than in June.

Power consumption is quickly reverting to previous year baseline, reaching 97% of last year level. Sustained Impetus in e-way bills generated is reflected in their value at 13.8 lakh crore in August, reaching 97.2% of the corresponding month of the previous year.

Written by- Mousami Jena
Image courtsey- Google

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