Subhechcha Ganguly 
In a dramatic turn of events, the verdict of the Karnataka Assembly elections of 2023 has sent shockwaves through the state’s political landscape. The results have been nothing short of stunning, with the Congress party emerging as the single largest entity, snatching victory from the BJP’s grasp. With 128 seats to its name, the Congress has achieved its best performance in the state since 1989, securing a resounding 40.8% vote share.
Meanwhile, the BJP, which had dominated the political arena in the state for years, has suffered a crushing blow, losing a staggering 44 seats and experiencing a decline of 6% vote share in comparison to its 2018 tally. The party’s aspirations have been dealt a major setback, leaving its leaders and supporters reeling from the unexpected outcome.
In contrast, the JD(S), which was a key player in the previous government, has been relegated to the fringes of the political arena, with a mere 18 seats to its name. The party, which had hoped to make significant gains in the election, has been left disappointed by the results, unable to secure the desired mandate from the people of Karnataka.Congress heavyweights including the party President Mallikarjun Kharge and some non-partisan poll observers have billed the Karnataka poll outcome as the victory of democracy over the politics of hate, bigotry and divisiveness.
Kharge was also all praise for Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra, a cross-country foot march that he undertook last year to highlight the issues of farmers, workers and the poor, has proved to be a game changer for the Congress in Karnataka. Rahul Gandhi interacted with thousands of people during his yatra, listening to their grievances and aspirations. He also addressed several rallies and meetings, where he attacked the BJP government for its failures and corruption. He also highlighted the achievements and schemes of the previous Congress government led by Siddaramaiah. The yatra also energised the Congress organisation in Karnataka, which was facing factionalism and infighting. The yatra brought together two strong leaders of the party, Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar, who coordinated well with each other and mobilised their respective support bases. That apart, the yatra instilled a sense of unity and solidarity among the party workers and leaders, who worked hard to ensure the victory of the party. The yatra also boosted the morale and confidence of the party cadre, who felt inspired by Rahul Gandhi’s leadership and vision.
Why Congress won
Anti-incumbency: The BJP government led by Basavaraj Bommai faced strong anti-incumbency due to its poor handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, corruption charges, internal factionalism and defections of its senior leaders. The BJP also failed to deliver on its promises of development, welfare and good governance. The voters were disillusioned with the BJP and wanted a change.
Social justice outreach: The Congress played the social justice card effectively by promising to increase the reservation ceiling from 50% to 75% and ban hate-spreading organisations like the RSS and Bajrang Dal. The Congress also wooed the backward classes, minorities and Dalits by highlighting the atrocities committed by the BJP and its affiliates against them. The Congress also projected itself as a secular and inclusive party that respects diversity and pluralism.
Leadership factor: The Congress had a clear edge over the BJP in terms of leadership. The Congress had two strong leaders in Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar, who led the campaign from the front and mobilised their respective support bases. Siddaramaiah, who was the chief minister from 2013 to 2018, showcased his achievements and schemes for the poor and farmers. Shivakumar, who is the state party president, displayed his organisational skills and charisma. Both leaders also coordinated well with each other and avoided any clash of egos. The BJP, on the other hand, lacked a credible face in Karnataka. Bommai was seen as a weak and indecisive leader who was remote-controlled by Delhi. He also faced opposition from within his party from leaders like BS Yediyurappa, Jagadish Shettar and KS Eshwarappa. The BJP also relied heavily on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s appeal and charisma, but it did not work this time.
What it means for the decisive electoral battleground in 2024
Boost for Congress: The Karnataka victory is a huge boost for the Congress ahead of the crucial 2024 Lok Sabha elections. It shows that the Congress can still win elections on its own strength and challenge the BJP’s dominance. It also shows that the Congress can revive itself in states where it has a strong base and organisation. The Karnataka win will also boost the morale and confidence of the party workers and leaders across the country. It will also help the Congress to attract more allies and partners for a united opposition front against the BJP in 2024.
Setback for BJP: The Karnataka defeat is a major setback for the BJP as it loses one of its key states in southern India. It also exposes the limitations of Modi’s popularity and charisma, which failed to overcome local issues and anti-incumbency. It also shows that the BJP’s Hindutva agenda and polarisation tactics are not working in states where there is a strong regional identity and diversity. The Karnataka loss will also dent the BJP’s image and credibility as a party of development, good governance and welfare. It will also embolden its rivals and critics to question its performance and policies at the Centre and in other states.
Relevance of JD (S): The JD (S) has lost its relevance in Karnataka politics as it has been relegated to a distant third position. It has also lost its bargaining power as it cannot play the role of a kingmaker anymore. The JD (S) will have to rethink its strategy and alliance options for 2024 as it faces an existential crisis.
The Karnataka Assembly polls 2023 have delivered a historic verdict that has reshaped the political landscape of the state and has implications for national politics as well. The Congress has made a remarkable comeback by defeating the BJP convincingly and reclaiming its southern citadel. The BJP has suffered a humiliating defeat that has exposed its weaknesses and vulnerabilities. The JD (S) has been marginalised as it has lost its support base and influence. The results have also set the stage for an interesting contest between the Congress and the BJP in 2024.
