Vienna, September 7, 2026: OPEC+ has decided to keep its oil production targets unchanged for October, pausing further adjustments as the group assesses volatile global market conditions and disruptions to crude flows in the Middle East. The decision was taken during a virtual meeting of seven key OPEC+ producers on September 6.
Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman agreed to maintain their September 2026 required production levels through October, according to the official statement issued by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
The combined October production quota for the seven countries, excluding compensation volumes, is expected to stand at around 31.01 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia’s required production is set at about 10.478 million barrels per day, while Russia’s stands at 9.949 million barrels per day. Iraq’s level is 4.431 million barrels per day, followed by Kuwait at 2.676 million, Kazakhstan at 1.628 million, Algeria at 1.007 million and Oman at 841,000 barrels per day.
Supply disruptions complicate OPEC+ calculations
The decision comes against the backdrop of continuing disruption to oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global energy shipments. Reuters reported that tensions involving the United States and Iran have reduced traffic through the waterway, adding to concerns about the availability of Middle Eastern crude.
Oil prices were already responding to the heightened supply concerns. On September 7, Brent crude rose 1.25% to $97.48 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 1.25% to $92.62 a barrel in early trading. Reuters reported that Brent had gained 7.8% during the previous week, while WTI had risen nearly 10%.
The disruption is particularly significant because the Strait of Hormuz has historically carried a substantial share of global oil flows. Kpler data cited by Reuters showed that an average of only 10 commodity ships a day transited the strait during the 10 days preceding September 7, the lowest level since May.
From production cuts to a pause
The October decision follows a period in which OPEC+ had been gradually increasing production. In August, the group agreed to raise output for September, completing the phased rollback of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day supply cut introduced in 2023, according to Reuters.
However, agreed production targets do not necessarily translate into the same volume of crude reaching the physical market. Reuters reported that actual output remains below targets amid the disruption caused by the conflict. Analysts cited by Reuters have also noted that the group’s ability to influence physical oil supply is currently constrained by the disruption to exports.
The group also faces a broader question over future production quotas. OPEC+ is reviewing members’ sustainable production capacities ahead of determining 2027 production baselines, which will form the basis for future quotas.
Market outlook remains uncertain
OPEC+ did not provide guidance beyond October in its latest statement. Instead, the seven countries reiterated their commitment to complying with the broader Declaration of Cooperation and said they would continue meeting monthly to assess market conditions. The next meeting is scheduled for October 4, 2026.
For oil-importing economies, including India, developments in crude prices and shipping through the Middle East will remain important. A sustained rise in international crude prices can increase the import bill for major oil-consuming economies and add pressure to transport and other energy-related costs, although the eventual domestic impact depends on factors including exchange rates, refining margins, taxes and domestic fuel pricing.
For now, the decision to hold production targets steady leaves the global oil market watching two closely linked developments: how quickly crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz recover and how OPEC+ approaches its next round of production quotas.
