The incumbent Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee proved to be third time lucky. Proving naysayers wrong, she coasted Trinamul Congress (TMC) to a spectacular win at the polls. Once again, the masses blessed their affectionate ‘Didi’ with a resounding mandate. The TMC romped home, bagging more than 200 out of 294 seats. True, the BJP made significant gains but the poll outcome belied their high voltage expectations. Also, what worked in TMC’s favour was the considerable rout faced by the CPM anchored Left-Congress alliance especially in their pocket boroughs. In Bengal, it’s Mamata who still brandishes the magic wand. Her writ runs large and the ‘Maa Maati Manush’ slogan resonates loud with the people, muffling out the high decibel optics of Modi & company.
While Mamata was expected to be voted to power, this massive victory belies the forecast and poll math. What really turned the tide? And, so profoundly in her favour?
Let’s deconstruct the reasons:-
Factors that Powered a Stupendous Mamata Win
· Projected herself as ‘Fighter Didi”- A wheelchair bound leader took on the might and muscle of the Centre and the posse of BJP stalwarts like Modi and Amit Shah who flew down to Bengal for canvassing votes for the BJP. Mamata built up a powerful narrative, flagging the harassment to the common people from lockdowns, spike in petrol & diesel prices, debilitating legislations like Farm Ordinances and the struggle as well as short supply of vaccines. Mamata clearly had an edge in this video war where political adversaries were pitted against each other. Her indomitable spirit reigned supreme through the poll campaigning.
· Consolidation of Muslim votes: The incumbent BJP made runaway gains in the Muslim pockets of North Dinajpur, Malda and Murshidabad. The incumbent Chief Minister camped at Malda for nearly five days to counter the Congress-Left grouping. She appealed to the people to shun the BJP if they detested the idea of ‘divisive politics’. It may be noted that these constituencies have been historically the bastions of the Left parties and Congress. In fact, Murshidabad happens to be the home constituency of firebrand Congress MP Adhir Ranjan Choudhury. Ground reports indicated that the residing Muslims in these zones shifted their allegiance from Left and Congress to the BJP. Voters felt the wind was currently blowing in favour of the TMC and hence, the choice. Along with these three districts, North 24 Parganas, South 24 Parganas and Birbhum had a noticeable concentration of Muslims where they constituted 42 per cent of the population. Their voting preference always had a sway on the final poll outcome.
· Branding central BJP leaders as ‘Tourist Netas’: With this campaign, Mamata single handedly alienated the top BJP leaders from the mind and psyche of Bengal’s voters. The state’s hoi polloi have often rooted for her ‘Maa Maati Manush’ (Mother, Soil, Human) slogan. Mamata leveraged her emotional connect to the hilt. She pointed out how the BJP leaders from the Centre were no more than ‘Tourist Netas’. Their vision and aspiration were so divorced from the people’s need and they hardly understood the nuances of the Bengali culture. Such leaders visited Bengal only to further their vote bank politics agenda, she averred defiantly. And, the narrative clicked.
· TMC turncoats did not do well: Some of the known faces in the TMC camp defected to the BJP in the run up to the Bengal assembly elections. Not unsurprising. It’s a common phenomenon in Indian politics. May be these leaders were taken in by the BJP’s blandishments. However, what again worked in Mamata’s favour is the lackluster performance of the TMC turncoats. Mamata once termed these turncoats as ‘Mir Jafars’ who tried to stab the TMC on its back.
The TMC halo of a massive victory had one dark spot. The party high command Mamata Banerjee conceding defeat by a slender margin to her one time lieutenant turned political opponent Suvendu Adhikari of BJP. The poll outcome in Nandigram (a seat which Mamata chose over her traditional Bhawanipore) is still contested. The TMC has alleged illegalities in the counting of votes and appealed to the Chief Electoral Officer (CEO) for recounting. Having said that, Mamata’s name will be etched in the annals of electoral politics for scripting a humongous victory while overseeing the poll trail from a wheelchair.
Mamata profusely thanked the people of Bengal for blessing her again with such an immense mandate. “It is the victory of the people of Bengal, the victory of democracy. Bengal has saved India today. This landslide victory came after fighting against several odds — the Centre, its machinery, its agencies. This victory has saved the humanity,” Banerjee said, addressing the press as she stood on her feet for the first time in nearly two months.
BJP leaders now need to get their act together. They have redoubtable opponents in the form of regional parties like TMC to contend with. Victory is still far on the horizon. The time is to set right the wrongs at the ‘Trinamul’ level.